Risk factors

Telecommunications market

Increasing competition driven by national infrastructure providers and service providers who do not have their own telecoms infrastructure (e.g. OTTs) is exerting transformation pressure on the business. During this transformation, the complexity resulting from the parallel operation of old and new technologies has to be reduced so as to enable new, attractive services. Here there is a risk that the revenue from the classic telecoms business will not be secured sustainably during the transformation process, while at the same time technical complexity remains undiminished. Moreover, a trend can currently be observed towards national and international cooperation among telecommunications providers, the purpose of which is to provide low-cost services internationally and exploit major synergies. There is thus a risk that Swisscom will not be able to align its cost structures with its current and future competitors, which would narrow the scope for investment, innovation and price reductions.

If such risks materialise, this could delay implementation of the strategy or have a detrimental effect on customer satisfaction. Swisscom has initiated measures in various areas to manage these risks.

Politics and regulation

The manner in which regulations are implemented (e.g. telecommunications and antitrust legis­lation) entails risks for Swisscom which could have an adverse impact on the company’s financial position and results of operations. The main risks concern the possibility of price regulation being extended to mobile communications (mobile termination) and broadband (optical fibre) which would further reduce Swisscom’s income and restrict the company’s room for manoeuvre, as well as sanctions by the Competition Commission which could reduce Swisscom’s operating results and cause reputational damage to the ‘company. The forthcoming revision of the Telecommunications Act also heightens regulatory risk. Finally, excessively high demands imposed on universal service provision by political groups, for instance supporters of the “Public Service” initiative, threaten to fundamentally undermine the current competitive system.

See report page 36

Increased bandwidth in the access network

Customer demand for broadband access is growing rapidly, as is the popularity of mobile devices and IP-based services (smartphones, IP TV, OTTs, etc.). Swisscom faces tough competition from cable companies and other network operators as it strives to meet current and future customer needs and defend its own market share. The network expansion that this necessitates calls for major investments. To mitigate financial risks and ensure optimum network coverage, expansion is determined by population density and customer demand. Substantial risks would arise if Swisscom were forced to spend more on network expansion than planned, or if projected long-term earnings were to fall. Swisscom minimises the risks by adapting the broadband expansion of the access network to changing conditions on an ongoing basis.

Human capital

Constant changes in background conditions and markets mean that corporate culture needs to adapt. The key challenges in this context lie in maintaining employee motivation and high staff loyalty despite cost pressure, while managing growth and efficiency, increasing employees’ ability to adapt and renew their skills and ensuring that Swisscom remains an attractive employer.

Market consolidation in Italy, economic situation, regulation and the recoverability of Fastweb’s assets

In the Italian market, the merger of H3G and Wind could have significant ramifications for Swisscom’s subsidiary Fastweb. In addition, Italy’s economic performance and competitive dynamics carry risks which could have a detrimental impact on Fastweb’s strategy and jeopardise projected revenue growth. The impairment test performed in 2015 confirmed the recoverable value of Fastweb’s assets. The recoverability of Fastweb’s net assets recognised in the consolidated financial statements is contingent above all on achieving the financial targets set out in the business plan (revenue growth, improvement in EBITDA margin and reduction in capital expenditure ratio). If future growth is lower than projected, there is a risk that this will result in a further impairment loss. Major uncertainty also surrounds the future interest rate trend and the country risk premium. An increase in interest rates or the country risk premium could lead to an impairment loss. Fastweb’s business operations are also influenced by the European and Italian telecommunications legislation. Regulatory risks can jeopardise the achievement of targets and reduce the enterprise value.

Business interruption

Usage of Swisscom’s services is heavily dependent on technical infrastructure such as communications networks and IT platforms. Any major disruption to business operations poses a high financial risk as well as a substantial reputational risk. Force majeure, human error, hardware or software failure, criminal acts by third parties (e.g. computer viruses or hacking) and the ever-growing complexity and interdependence of modern technologies can cause damage or interruption to operations. Built-in redundancy, contingency plans, deputising arrangements, alternative locations, careful selection of suppliers and other measures are designed to ensure that Swisscom can deliver the level of service that customers expect at all times.

Information and security technologies

Swisscom is in the midst of a transformation from line-switched TDM technology to IP technology. This transformation should enable Swisscom to roll out new products more flexibly and efficiently than before. The experience acquired with IP technology to date has been positive. Swisscom’s complex IT architecture entails risks during both the implementation and operating phases. These risks have the potential to delay the rollout of new services, increase costs and impact competitiveness. The transformation is being monitored by the Group Executive Board.

The area of Internet security has developed and changed with immense speed with respect to technology, economics and society and their interdependencies. These new innovations and capabilities go hand in hand with new opportunities as well as new risks.

The wider the variety of opportunities for attack, the more difficult prevention becomes. This means it is even more important for potential threats to be recognised at an early stage, systematically understood and quickly averted. 

Environment and health

Electromagnetic radiation (e.g. from mobile antennas or mobile handsets) has repeatedly been claimed to be potentially harmful to the environment and to health. Under the terms of the Ordinance on Non-Ionising Radiation (ONIR) Switzerland has adopted the precautionary principle and introduced limits for base stations which are ten times stricter than the EU’s limits. The public’s wary attitude to mobile antenna sites in particular is impeding Swisscom’s network expansion. Even without stricter legislation, public concerns about the effects of electromagnetic radiation on the environment and health could further hamper the construction of wireless networks in the future and drive up costs.

Climate change poses risks for Swisscom in the form of increased levels of precipitation as well as higher average or extreme temperatures. These trends could impact the operability of Swisscom’s telecoms infrastructure, particularly in view of the potential risk to base stations and local exchanges. The analysis of the risks posed by climate change is based on the official report of the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) on climate change, published in October 2011.